Weekend Winners Club

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If there’s one only one chart that you should look at, before spending your hard-earned money on the 150^th Kentucky Derby of 2024, besides The Grid of course, it’s the Major Preps History chart.  The reason is simple: You can normally cut the field in half before you even start.

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Yes it’s true that 93% of Kentucky Derby winners finished top two in their final prep race, normally one of the Big 6:  Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby.  Further, 100% finished top 4 in their final prep, Big 6 or not.

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Who are this year’s contenders based on this factor?

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Here’s the full chart of winners and runners-up in the Big 6 Final Preps in the Baffert Era.

Major Kentucky Derby Prep Races 1997-Present

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By now you should know that all but one of my final ½ Derby Dozen +1 rankings consists of contenders from this list, which is no surprise.  Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom checks in at number one, with Honor Marie getting an Honorable mention.

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The outlier in my Top 7 is Forever Young, winner of all 5 career races and stamping his Kentucky Derby ticket in the UAE Derby, which as a Grade II race would be considered a Big 6 prep, if it were run in this hemisphere.  No UAE contender has ever won the roses, but some have finished well.

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It bears mentioning that the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, run on artificial track, has made some noise recently in the Kentucky Derby.  2023 Jeff Ruby winner Two Phil’s was runner up in the Kentucky Derby, behind Florida Derby runner-up Mage, who was to be considered the top Fla Derby contender after the winner Forte scratched.

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In 2022, longshot Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike came out of a strong 3^rd place finish in the Jeff Ruby, following in the hoofsteps of Animal Kingdom, who won the Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby in 2011, when the race was known as the Spiral Stakes.

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This year the Jeff Ruby field was somewhat weaker than in other years, but Endlessly won it handily after winning the El Camino Real Derby, also on polytrack.  It’s tough to make a case for a horse that has never actually raced on dirt, but I said the same thing about Animal Kingdom in 2011, so count him in.

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For now, stick with my final Half Derby Dozen and One published on Friday.

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Get the Kentucky Derby Grid and The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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Friday, May 3 2024.

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(Other sites will give you some blah blah blah history of Derby etc here, as if you don’t know what it is.)  Here’s the long awaited Doug’s Derby Dozen.

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4 Catching Freedom 8-1 ML, Goldencents (Into Mischief) / Ma’am (Colonel John).

It’s not that he won the only 9.5 furlong prep race, it’s the way in which he did it. This talented colt from the API sireline, trained by the competent Brad Cox, has won 3 of 5 races including the G2 Louisiana Derby.  He likes to close from behind, and yet has never had a fast pace up front to run at.  They will likely run a legit pace in the Kentucky Derby, and doubting Flavien Prat atop would be a mistake.
Prediction: he gets the pace and wins the race.

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8 Just a Touch 10-1, Justify (Scat Daddy) / Touching Beauty (Tapit).

The potential on this one is through the roof.  Yes he lost his last 2 races, finishing a close 2^nd in both, including the Blue Grass G1 and before that the Gotham G3. Those were his 2^nd and 3^rd career starts for Brad Cox, and he continues to improve.  Without an abundance of early speed to burn him out, he should take another step forward.  Sire Justify, the last runner to earn the Triple Crown, following 3 total career races. Florent Geroux takes the mount.

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Resilience 20-1, Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) / Meadowsweet (Smart Strike).

Winning the Wood Memorial nowadays isn’t that greatest feat in prep races, but he continues to improve for Bill Mott, peaking in the Wood. Perhaps the Wood wasn’t hard enough, but the fact is that he earned the 2^nd highest Grid PF and Bris PF (Fierceness) and is within a few points of the top Timeform figure.  Despite the fact that Junior Alvarado has won over 2000 races, he’s only 38 years old but a very seasoned Churchill jockey.

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Sierra Leone 3-1, Gun Runner (Candy Ride) / Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon).

First of all, just look at the pedigree.  Gun Runner was one of the best gun runners of last decade, winning the BC Classic among 4 other Grade 1 wins and a strong 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby.  He’s won 3 of 4 and various track conditions, and the only loss was by a nose. If he gets a legit pace up front, then it could be curtains for the competition.  If he doesn’t win, it’s because Tyler will run up on the heels of the frontrunner and then cry foul when it’s his fault.

11 Forever Young 10-1, Real Steel (Deep Impact) / Forever Darling (Congrats).

Most will overlook this horse, but that would be a mistake.  There’s a reason that he has won all 5 career races, all stakes races which include the G3 Saudi Derby. Last out in the G2 UAE Derby he ran from off the pace with a wide trip, which is very seldom a winning recipe at Dubai.  Despite the fact that his trainer and jockey have names that I can’t spell, it’s tough to dismiss. And records are made to be broken. Consider him a legit midshot.

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Just Steel 20-1, Justify (Scat Daddy) / Irish Lights (Fastnet Rock).

There’s a good back story about D. Wayne Lukas (hall of fame trainer of multiple Kentucky Derby wins) meeting Keith Asmussen 60 years ago.  That Asmussen was the father of hall of fame trainer Steve Asmussen and grandfather of first time Kentucky Derby jockey Keith Asmussen, aboard for this Saturday’s wild ride.  More than just a feel good story, and sired by TC winner Justify, it seems like Lukas has one more trick up his sleeve.  Wayne once told me backside at Churchill, he likes to box about 6 horses in a superfecta just for fun.  Consider this one boxed.

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Stronghold 20-1, Ghostzapper (Awesome Again) / Spectator (Jimmy Creed)

Ghostzapper was the most dominant 4 year old of his time, getting a late bloom which is usually the case for his offspring.  In this case, Stronghold has just rattled off victories in the G3 Sunland Derby and G1 Santa Anita Derby.  He should have more in the tank for D’Amato as relative unknown jockey Antonio Fresu gets the mount.

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Honorable mentions:

Fierceness, the ML favorite at 5-2, Pletcher, blah blah blah, etc.  Read it on other sites.

Society Man 20-1 legit long shot

Honor Marie 20-1 legit long shot

Endlessly 30-1 Jeff Ruby winner

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Get the Full Kentucky Derby Grid and the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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Bonus: Kentucky Oaks picks

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14 Leslie’s Rose 4-1 (Into Mischief) peaking after G1 Ashland win

11 Ways and Means 5-1 (Practical Joke) 2^nd in G2 GP Oaks

3 Where’s My Ring 15-1 (Twirling Candy) 1^st in G3 Gazelle

4 Power Squeeze 12-1 (Union Rags) 1^st in G2 GP Oaks

13 Just FYI 9-2 (Justify) 2^nd G1 Ashland

5 Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna) 1^st in G1 Fantasy

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April 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan.  The last series of Kentucky Derby prep races dominate early April at Aqueduct, Keeneland, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita.

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April 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Racing Schedule North America and Japan

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The second year of the Preakness Futures Pool is underway this week, with Pool 1 closing at 8PM Saturday, after two three-year- old prep races are run, and before the other 2.  The Gotham G3 at Aqueduct is slated for 5:36PM, and the depleted Fountain of Youth G2 is set for a 6:10PM post time.

Preakness Stakes at Pimlico

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The Battaglia Memorial is scheduled for 8:25PM at Turfway, after the pool closes, and the San Felipe G2 has been rescheduled for Sunday. Several of the contenders in Preakness Pool 1 are competing in the Saturday and Sunday prep races.  With that in mind, here’s what you need to know.

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Gotham G3 5:36PM ET, 8f at The Aqueduct:

Just a Touch (5-2ML) remains intact after late scratches, and is the morning line and post time favorite after winning his debut romp in the mud at the Fair Grounds for Brad Cox.  He is 57-1 in Pool 1, up from 30-1 morning line, but that will come down again considerably if he wins the Gotham, in which he is the only Pool 1 contender.

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Fountain of Youth G2 6:10PM ET, 8.5f at Gulfstream Park

Dornoch (2-1) is not surprisingly favored, after rattling off 2 wins including a Remsen G2 win at Aqueduct last out for Danny Gargan.  At current odds he is the 3^rd choice in Pool 1 at 15-1 odds, same as ML.

Speak Easy (9-2) should end up as the favorite or co-favorite in this race, in his second career start after blazing away to a 98 PF in his MSW debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher.  Currently registering at 45-1 in Pool 1, that will shoot down way lower if he shreds the FOY field.

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John Battaglia Memorial 8:25PM ET at Turfway Park

Epic Ride (5-2) heads the field after 2 straight wins at Turfway, including the Leonatus Stakes last out for John Ennis. Currently at triple digit odds in Pool 1, those will likely not come down, considering the 8:25PM post time, so if you think he will move forward tonight, he’s a good bet.

Bolt at Midnight (4-1) owns the highest PF in the race, an 89 last out, breaking his maiden at Turfway for Mick Ruis.  He does not appear in Pool 1, but stands a good chance of winning tonight.

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San Felipe G2 6PM ET Sunday at Santa Anita

Nysos (2-5) is the prohibitive favorite, winning all 3 starts for Bob Baffert, including the Bob Hope G3 at Del Mar and the RB Lewis G3 at Santa Anita last out. Nysos is also the Pool 1 favorite at 5-2, so win or lose, you’re not getting good odds.  Bob trains 3 of the 5 entries in the race, and could well take the top 3 slots across the wire.  It’s unknown if Nysos will be pointed to the Kentucky Derby yet, but regardless, he will likely be the favorite for the Preakness, a race in which Baffert trainees have done very well.

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The Pool 1 Field, meaning all horses that don’t have individual odds in the Pool, remains a viable bet at 6-1 odds.  However, there are many individual entries that have great odds listed, so today is a good time to take your chances on a Preakness longshot.  You won’t see odds like this again on race day.

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Check it out for yourself!  We are providing the Pool 1 Grid here free of charge. The odds won’t change much if at all, until after the two early evening prep races are run, so follow them on your favorite wagering site before placing your final bets tonight.

Download the Pool 1 Grid here: EQA03022024G

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You can get The Grid for all your favorite tracks, races, and futures pools right here!

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March 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Racing Schedule for North America and Japan.  Gulfstream Park is set to host 26 stakes races this month, including the Fountain of Youth, Davona Dale, GP Oaks, and ending with the Florida Derby on March 30.

Updates:

Santa Anita canceled racing on March 2; stakes races will be March 3.

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Gulfstream Park
Photo: Stronach Group

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2024 March Thoroughbred Stakes Racing for NTRA and JRA

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February 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Racing Schedule for North America and Japan.

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Delta Downs kicks off February with Louisiana Premier Night including 10 stakes races for Louisiana Breds

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February 2024 Stakes Racing Schedule

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here!

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January 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan includes 82 stakes races scheduled around the continent for the NTRA. As usual, Gulfstream and Santa Anita will carry the bulk of the action this time of year.

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January 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

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Thursday, November 9, 2023.

In the Breeders’ Cup aftermath, let’s see what happened in Kentucky Derby 2024 Pool 1, which opened on Tuesday the 1^st and closed the day before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 was run on Friday evening at Santa Anita.

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The favorite was the field (all other 3yo males not individually listed) going in, and remained a solid favorite after the pool closed.  This was mostly due to the presence of Muth, who opened as a 4-1 virtual co-favorite in the BCJ, and wound up with odds of 2.7 as the 2^nd choice.  Muth was a field bet due to his coach, Baffert.

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The BCJ post-time favorite finished just behind Muth at odds of 2.3, and was the individual entry favorite in the Pool at 14-1.  The BCJ champion Fierceness was a major overlay, going from ML of 6-1 to 16-1, despite the scratch of another single digit competitor (The Wine Steward, scratched by horse stewards.)

Fierceness, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Nov.3 2023

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Fierceness ran back closer to his debut performance, an 11 length win in a maiden special weight at a muddy Saratoga track at 6f, giving him a PF of 97, the highest of all Pool 1 entries.  His 2^nd effort was appalling, giving him the 2^nd lowest PF of the 38 Pool 1 entries.

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Most people would assume that since it was also a muddy track, this time at the Aqueduct, that the poor performance was due to the increased distance or class in the Champagne G1.  That proved to not be true.  He tracked the BCJ pacesetter then put the field away by 6 lengths in the stretch.

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While his odds in the BCJ more than doubled, interestingly the odds of Fierceness went to about one third of his opening Pool 1 odds, and that was BEFORE the BCJ was run, so somebody with a fat wallet was likely using the Grid.  Final odds for Fierceness were 29-1.  You won’t get that on Derby day.

KENTUCKY DERBY POOL 1 GRID AND FINAL ODDS

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So congratulations if you paid attention to the PF’s in the Grid and got great odds on Fierceness for next year’s Kentucky Derby.  And congratulations for being an idiot if you bet on the field at 4-5, because literally any horse you like in any other pool entry will have much higher odds.

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Either way, there’s a long time to go before the first weekend in May, and 5 more Kentucky Derby Futures Pools, setting a new record. You will want to stay tuned for Pool 2, when they will also include a sire future bet.  This is a fun bet that you can use pool contestants to establish your picks.

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For example, Street Sense, a former Kentucky Derby champion, has 4 contestants in Pool 1.  None of the other sires have more than 2 entrants.  The sire of Fierceness has one more in the pool, which is one of the least impressive so far.

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Of course, the Pool 2 entries will be somewhat different, and you will have the benefit of being able to observe some more futurities and assorted 2yo races before it closes.  That will include the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 and the Coronation Futurity on Nov.25.

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As stated aforehand, stay tuned for more info coming up.  We’ll have free PF’s and stats for the Pool 2 Grid, along with the first Derby Double Dozen of the year, which you don’t want to miss.  All that info and speculation is free to the public with no strings or charges attached.

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Get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here!

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Thursday, November 2, 2023.  Kentucky Derby pools start earlier every year, having started on Tuesday October 31 this year.  Pool 1 will end today at 6PM ET, about 25 hours before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 at Santa Anita runs on Friday.

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Get the Breeders’ Cup Grid for both full days here!

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Not surprisingly, some of the 38 individual entries in Pool 1 are slated to run in the BCJ, six to be exact.  It would be seven but of course they left out one of the favorites, Muth, because he is trained by Churchill Downs’ arch enemy, Bob Baffert.  Here are the 6 Pool 1 / BCJ Crossovers and current odds:

The Wine Steward 8-1 / 40-1

Timberlake 4-1 / 19-1

Locked 7-2 / 14-1

General Partner 8-1 / 58-1

Fierceness 6-1 / 26-1

Noted 20-1 / 29-1

Muth 4-1 / 4-5 (as part of field)

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So if you’re interested in any of these and you think they will win the Juvenile, you’d better get in on it for Pool 1 because their odds will go down in the next Pool.  Because they all have great odds except locked which is OK but it’s way too early.  So get on it!

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Kentucky Derby Pool 1 Grid Free Download

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November 2023.  Thoroughbred horse racing stakes schedule for the NTRA and JRA begins has 166 stakes races on the agenda.

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Racing will blast off Friday November 3-4 with the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita along with dozens of other stakes races around the continent.

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Get the Breeders’ Cup Grid for both days, and or the grids for all your favorite tracks and races right here!

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SA will only remain open for the first weekend of November before giving way to Del Mar, which will continue it’s great racing tradition.  Churchill Downs has also just begun their great fall meet.

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November 2023 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

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